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Markets and Politics |
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Benny Geys
Government Weakness and Electoral Cycles
in Local Public Debt: Evidence from Flemish Municipalities
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Empirical research on Political Business (and Budget) Cycles is more
supportive for electoral cycles in policies than in macro-economic
outcomes. But even pre-electoral policy cycles receive no unanimous
confirmation. In the present paper, we give credence to recent
arguments that this may be due to the disregard for the political,
economic and institutional context in which politicians make policy
decisions. Specifically, we argue that the level of political
fragmentation of the government affects both the need for and
possibility to engage in opportunistic policy cycles. An analysis of
local public debt data for 296 Flemish municipalities provides
empirical support for this contention. |
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