Backlash Against New Progressive Actors

How do voters react to the emergence of new parties perceived as “radically progressive”? A new WZB study shows that the electoral success of new parties is leading to a counter-movement toward conservative parties. WZB researcher Fabio Ellger used the establishment of the German Green Party (Die Grünen) in the 1980s as a case study: its parliamentary presence mobilized conservative voters and strengthened the CDU/CSU, triggering a kind of conservative “backlash.” Conservative parties benefited from this counter-movement.

Fabio Ellger, together with researchers Tom Arend and António Valentim (London School of Economics and Political Science), examined district-level election results in the German federal elections for the period 1969 to 2017 and used additional data from election and panel surveys for the study. In summary, his findings show that the Greens have historically acted and been perceived as the antithesis of the established conservatives (CDU/CSU). This led to parts of the conservative electorate consciously turning to the CDU/CSU as a counter-reaction.

This is reflected both in the election results and in the increased personal identification with the CDU/CSU. The Greens' entry into a state parliament increased the CDU/CSU's share of the vote by around 1.3 to 1.6 percentage points in the following federal election year and increased the likelihood of switching to CDU/CSU party loyalty by around 2 percentage points — especially among previously non-partisan voters. It is interesting to note that the rejection is more related to behavior perceived as a violation of norms by the Greens than to their specific political positions. Comparable patterns are suggested by survey data from twelve Western European countries.

“Some centrist voters retreat to established conservative parties when they feel disturbed by new progressive forces,” explains Fabio Ellger, research associate in the Department of Transformations of Democracy.

Backlash against new disruptive political actors

Conclusion: the (electoral) success of the Greens acted as a disruptive impulse that mobilized conservative voters and strengthened the CDU/CSU in the short term. The effect seems to stem less from specific policy positions than from a reaction to norm-violating, anti-establishment behavior and the resulting defense of identity.

The researcher also sees a parallel with the present. Identity-based counter-movements among the electorate in response to radical political forces are nothing new. These findings illustrate a more general pattern of backlash against new disruptive political actors. They also explain why polarization and fragmentation of the party system are currently intensifying in many established democracies.

The picture shows Joschka Fischer's sneakers, which he wore when he was sworn in as the first Minister of State from the Green Party in the Hessian state parliament. The shoes are part of the collection of the German Leather Museum/Deutsches Ledermuseum in Offenbach. Source: ©Deutsches Ledermuseum, C. Perl-Appl