Do climate protests matter?
Public debate on the political effects of climate protests has been contentious. In a research brief for the Progressive Politics Research Network (PPRNet) at Oxford University, WZB researchers Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti and Swen Hutter show that sustained mobilisation can positively shape public perceptions and policy outcomes. They also challenge claims that confrontational protest tactics reduce public support for progressive climate policies. Drawing on data from Germany (2022–2023), they argue that while confrontational protests are less popular than mass demonstrations, support for climate policies remains stable regardless of protest tactics.
In their analysis of the outcomes of climate mobilization, Saldivia Gonzatti and Hutter focus on the effects of protest on public opinion and politicians’ behavior. They point to recent research showing that climate protests do, for example, raise the public’s climate concerns and influence voting behavior accordingly. Local protests have also induced politicians to pay more attention to climate issues, as, for instance, WZB researcher Lennart Schürmann has demonstrated for German MPs. While any link between such protests and policy changes is harder to evaluate, the demonstrable effects on public opinion and voting patterns are critical precursors to influencing policy.
For their second point, the authors differentiate between public opinion towards confrontational protest forms, such as street blockades, on the one hand, and towards their policy goals on the other. A survey experiment conducted by Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti, Swen Hutter and their co-author Sophia Hunger has indeed shown that these tactics find much less public support than peaceful demonstrations. However, the authors emphasise that the experiment did not demonstrate any effect on policy preferences, i.e. confrontational protest forms did not reduce support for climate protection policies. Consequently, the authors argue, radical climate protest may harm the movement, but not the cause.
6/1/2024, MST/MP