Conspiracy beliefs fuel xenophobia

Conspiracy narratives have a demonstrably negative impact on social relations. People exposed to such narratives develop more negative attitudes towards outgroups, including Muslims, Chinese, or Russians. This is the key finding of a new study by Eylem Kanol, a guest researcher at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center, and Rebecca Endtricht from the University of Hamburg.

For their study, Kanol and Endtricht conducted a survey experiment in Germany. Participants were confronted with conspiratorial framing of health, economic, and security crises – without being directed toward specific narratives or groups. They were then asked to rate their attitudes towards various groups, with higher values indicating stronger negative feelings (see graph). The study included members of outgroups in Germany, such as Jews, refugees, and Muslims, as well as citizens of the United States, China, and Russia, as these nations are frequently targeted by conspiracy narratives. To assess the causal impact of conspiratorial framing of crises, a control group was included. Participants in this group evaluated the same social groups but without having been confronted with the conspiracy scenarios beforehand.

Without a crisis scenario, respondents evaluated Muslims, refugees, and Russians most negatively, while Jews and Americans received the most positive assessments. However, when exposed to a conspiratorial depiction of a crisis, perceptions worsened significantly across almost all scenarios. In particular, the study found that a conspiracy-oriented framing of wars had the strongest negative impact on how different groups were perceived. Similarly, conspiratorial framing of economic crises also had a strong negative effect.

The further people move from the political center to the left or right, the more susceptible they are to hostile attitudes when confronted with conspiracy-theoretical narratives. While right-leaning individuals are particularly sensitive to economic scenarios, left-leaning individuals are more influenced by conspiracy narratives related to health crises. In contrast, those who position themselves in the political center demonstrate greater resilience to conspiratorial narratives.

“Conspiracy narratives reinforce the division between 'us' and 'them' in times of uncertainty and crisis and promote the emergence of prejudices,” explains Eylem Kanol. “In light of current developments, such as the decision by many social media platforms to abandon fact-checking and the growing influence of far-right parties that often refer to conspiracy narratives, it is more important than ever to recognize and address these effects.”

The data in this study comes from a representative survey conducted in Germany between March 18 and June 10, 2021, as part of the research cluster “Monitoring System and Transfer Platform Radicalization” (MOTRA) in collaboration with the Institute of Criminology at the University of Hamburg. More than 4,000 people in Germany took part in the study.

The study does not allow for conclusions about the long-term effects of experimental manipulation on people's attitudes. Previous research suggests that conspiracy beliefs tend to persist over time and may contribute to lasting hostility towards outgroups. However, further studies are needed to provide empirical evidence on this matter.