The International Diffusion of Democratic Backsliding

This research project focuses on the diffusion of democratic backsliding across national borders. The concept of diffusion refers to processes in comparative regime change research where each instance of a phenomenon (in this case, democratic backsliding) increases the likelihood of future occurrences. Thus, individual cases are not independent of one another; rather, a form of 'contagion' takes place. Empirical observations indicate that instances of democratic backsliding often occur in close temporal succession and within geographically connected countries, suggesting that they are not isolated events.

However, existing research on democratic backsliding predominantly emphasizes internal political factors while treating cases as independent. In contrast, studies on international influences on political regimes have primarily focused on democratization and the stability of autocratic regimes, leaving a gap regarding democratic backsliding.

The aim of our project is to address both of these research gaps. On one hand, we seek to gain new insights into the international causes of democratic regression. On the other hand, we aim to expand the research on international influences on political regimes by including the perspective of democratic regression.

We will employ a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative statistical models will reveal generalizable patterns of cross-border diffusion of democratic regression. Case studies will utilize process tracing methods to demonstrate the causal mechanisms underlying the statistical relationships.