Perception of Security Influences Elections

When talking about migration, many citizens invoke the terms security and crime – often associated with fears and the suggestion that the increasing number of migrants is exacerbating crime. How does this perception influence voting preferences? What differences are there between voters and parties on the right, conservative and left of the political spectrum? A recent study by WZB researcher Jeyhun Alizade illustrates how strongly issues such as security and migration shape different political camps. 

Using existing survey data, a representative panel study and a large-scale survey experiment, Jeyhun Alizade, research fellow at the Migration, Integration, Transnationalization department, analyses how attitudes towards migrants, the perceived crime threat and the perception of security in Germany influence party preferences. The analysis of political attitudes and voting preferences reveals both parallels and clear differences between supporters of right-wing and left-wing parties, as Jeyhun Alizade makes clear.

The following patterns emerge:

• Security and crime are key issues for right-wing parties and their voters. Many of them see a direct link between migration and a supposed increase in crime. The expansion of “law-and-order” policies and restrictive immigration controls are among the core demands to address these fears. The AfD in particular places the issues of security, crime and migration at the forefront.  
• A key finding of the study is that conservative parties such as the CDU/CSU can also benefit from concerns about crime caused by migration, particularly among supporters of the Greens and the SPD. 
• Left-wing voter groups and parties (Greens, SPD, Left) emphasize humane approaches and rules in migration policy. However, they run the risk of losing votes to conservative parties, especially the CDU/CSU, if their electorate sees the issue of security in the context of migration neglected. While the Greens have also recently attempted to incorporate the issue of security into their platform, this has led to tensions within the party. 

The study shows: Right-wing populist parties, but also conservative parties such as the CDU/CSU, benefit from a clear focus on security and migration, as many voters, including urban voters, are convinced that these issues have a direct impact on their lived reality. However, overly restrictive approaches put off other, more moderate groups of voters. The left-wing parties find themselves in a dilemma between their base, which insists on integration and solidarity, and the need to reach voters for whom security is important. This leads to internal discussions and strategic conflicts, as is evident in the case of the Greens, for example.

The study clearly shows how important it is for parties to develop a balanced yet credible stance on issues such as migration and crime. While right-wing and conservative parties can reach broad groups of voters through a clear focus on security, left-wing groups face the challenge of combining social issues with the security needs of their voters without jeopardizing their core values.

20/2/25/kes