New Research Project: When Dictators Fall
North Africa and the Middle East are presently undergoing a series of political earthquakes. Two of the world’s longest seated dictators had to stand down, a third has driven his country to civil war. Even though the autocratic regimes of the region were, until recently, considered stable. When do autocratic regimes collapse? Why does one dictator survive, and the other not? These questions are examined by a team surrounding Prof. Wolfgang Merkel in a new research project.
Pressure off the streets alone is insufficient as an explanation for toppling dictatorships. The researchers assume that dictators support their rule on three pillars: legitimation, repression and cooptation. A collapse is more probable when one pillar as an instrument of power fails.
Based on this three-pillar model, a data set of autocratic systems from 1972 through 2009 will be compiled. Legitimation, cooptation and repression will be mapped out through a broad spectrum of institutional and socioeconomic indicators. The theoretical model will then be tested and improved through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods.
The research project “Critical Junctures and the Survival of Dictatorships. Explaining the Stability of Autocratic Regimes” will be conducted through 2014 and is financed by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).
Photo: Excitement about Hosni Mubarak’s resignation in Cairo, dpa picture alliance