What Predicts Success in the Absence of Clear Evaluation Standards? Evidence from German-Language Literary Prizes

Creative fields are marked by high degrees of subjectivity and an unequal distribution of success. To examine what predicts success and public recognition in such contexts, this paper analyzes a unique dataset of 725 books nominated for one of the seven popular German-language literary prizes between 2005 and 2020 that operate with publicly available nomination lists. For each book, we compiled detailed information on authors, book reviews, critics, and publishers. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we test competing explanations of prize-winning. Our results show that books with favorable reviews—in particular those favorably reviewed by most but not all critics— are most likely to win a prize. While prior success is also predictive of prize-winning, other factors, such as author demographics, book subject matter, and publisher reputation do not play a substantial role. By showing that equally-well reviewed books have comparable chances of winning a literary prize—independent of any other author or book-related characteristics—the results of our study suggest that public scrutiny and accountability in selection processes leave little room for bias and discrimination and may hence foster meritocratic principles in contexts with inherently subjective evaluation standards.

Lena Hipp holds the research professorship "Work. Family, Social Inequality" at the WZB and and is Professor of "Social Inquality and Social Policy" at the University of Potsdam.

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